LOX Summary Report: The proposal

A single option is advanced for a four runway airport with two pairs of close parallel runways. The annual capacity would be 120 million passengers and 4 million tonnes of air cargo. The initial phase of passenger Terminals would provide an annual capacity of 60 million passengers, with the anticipated further phases in 2021 and 2024 giving a combined capacity of 90 and 120 millions respectively.

Runways would be provided to match demand, in two phases each of two runways. Applying a utilisation limit of 80 per cent for the use of the airport runway system, all four runways would not be required until about 2024.

Although the demand forecast for the airport shows a need for two Terminals, each serving 30 million passengers, and two runways from the opening date, the design allows for construction of a single Terminal and runway should demand not match the projected levels.

There are no major 'front end' capital costs entailed in the development of the airport. The comparatively low costs of the initial phases and the ability to ensure that growth could be closely and economically matched to demand would significantly reduce the risk that the project would require Public Sector financial support.

Master plan

The airport Master Plan layout in the context of the nearby settlements is shown on Figure 2.

Costs

The airport development costs are estimated at about £11.2 billion (based on Quarter 1 2002 prices). A Pre-feasibility estimate of costs, including those for infrastructure and a Development Zone, is included in an associated report.

Download a pdf version (size 92K) of the Cost report.

Demand forecast

Forecasts of passenger demand at the airport is based on the Department for Transport forecasts to 2030. [note 2]

In order to demonstrate a 25 year project operational period the demand is projected to 2040 on the basis of a long-term trend that assumes market stability for air transport in about 2050-2060.

Table 1: Forecast demand for LOX

Option	Year		Passengers (mppa)	ATM* ('000)
2 runways	2015	Capacity	60	513
		Demand	35	250
2 runways	2020	Capacity	90	513
		Demand	50	338
4 runways	2030	Capacity	120	756
		Demand	98	606
4 runways	2040	Capacity	120	756
		Demand	120	719

* Air Transport Movements, including Cargo ATM's

Air cargo forecast

The forecast of air cargo demand at the airport is [see Appendix Figures A.1-A.9]:

Table 2: Forecast air cargo demand for LOX

Option	Year		Air Cargo (million tonnes)	ATM ('000)
2 runways	2015	Capacity	1.0	25
		Demand	0.9	12
2 runways	2020	Capacity	2.0	25
		Demand	1.4	18
4 runways	2030	Capacity	3.0	50
		Demand	2.9	33
4 runways	2040	Capacity	4.0	50
		Demand	4.0	44